Today’s Landscape

Volatility is shaping the global supply chain landscape in new and disruptive ways. A recent federal appeals court ruling invalidated many tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Yet those tariffs remain in force until at least October 14, 2025 as the government appeals to the Supreme Court. This legal limbo adds another layer of unpredictability for companies already navigating capacity imbalances, inflationary pressures and shifting consumer demand.

Tariffs are not the only source of instability. Global trade policy, geopolitical uncertainty and natural disasters all feed into a cycle of disruption. For shippers, this creates a cascade of challenges: unpredictable landed cost, sourcing decisions clouded by risk, and difficulty forecasting domestic transportation spend with confidence.

What That Means for Supply Chains

International trade policy directly affects domestic freight. Shifts in tariffs or sourcing strategies can ripple through networks, changing volumes, altering lane balances and even impacting carrier mix. When these changes come quickly, transportation spend becomes harder to predict, service commitments are tested and budgets strain under unexpected variance.

In this environment, insight is as important as execution. Companies need the ability to look forward, anticipate potential shifts and evaluate how different choices will affect their networks. Scenario analysis allows leaders to explore questions like:

  • What happens to landed cost if tariffs remain in place versus if they are rolled back?
  • How would nearshoring or reshoring alter freight flows and mode utilization?
  • What is the cost differential between multiple policy outcomes across modes?

Having clear answers to these questions gives supply chain leaders the confidence to plan ahead and make strategic moves under uncertainty.

The Value of Scenario Forecasting

Scenario forecasting transforms uncertainty into a measurable variable. Rather than waiting for policies or markets to settle, shippers can model potential futures and test strategies against them.

For example, a tariff scenario might show one outcome where duties extend into 2026, another where they phase out mid-year and a third where they shift only for certain categories. Each scenario produces a different cost structure, sourcing mix and domestic transportation profile. By comparing these side by side, leaders can prepare contingency plans and align transportation budgets accordingly.

Forecasting also helps identify unintended ripple effects. A shift in sourcing closer to market may lower tariff exposure, but it could increase LTL demand and reduce truckload density. Anticipating these dynamics before they occur gives organizations a first-mover advantage.

Keeping Domestic Spend Stable

While global volatility cannot be eliminated, domestic transportation is where companies can create stability. By improving demand forecasting, balancing modal mix and aligning carrier strategy to market conditions, shippers can reduce variance and keep budgets predictable.

This discipline is not just about avoiding disruption. It is about building resilience. Stable transportation spend allows companies to protect margin, maintain service reliability and allocate resources with greater confidence. In many cases, it also creates space to capture savings opportunities that surface when markets overcorrect or capacity loosens.

Why It Matters

Supply chains that wait for clarity risk being caught flat-footed. Those that invest in forecasting and visibility are better prepared to respond to whatever outcome unfolds. Volatility becomes less of a crisis and more of a variable to be managed.

Ultimately, the ability to connect global uncertainty with domestic transportation strategy is what separates resilient supply chains from vulnerable ones. Trusted insight into these connections enables leaders to plan with confidence, act decisively and strengthen competitiveness even in turbulent conditions.

The Takeaway

Volatility is here to stay. Companies cannot prevent it, but they can prepare for it. A managed transportation partner like Transportation Insight provides the visibility and advisory insight to anticipate global scenarios while keeping domestic transportation spend forecastable and stable. Our clients that apply this structured approach are achieving parcel savings of 20 to 25 percent and LTL and truckload savings of 12 to 15 percent. Combined with visibility into true total landed cost, these improvements create measurable and lasting value across the supply chain. To explore how these strategies can support your business, talk to an expert.