The U.S. truckload freight market is full of contradictions—and operations leaders at manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers are feeling the pressure.

Economic uncertainty, persistent inflationary pressures and muted consumer demand continue to cloud transportation planning. For truckload shippers, these conditions have created a confounding mix: stagnant contract rates alongside shrinking carrier capacity—an imbalance that won’t last forever.

According to FMCSA Registration Statistics, the number of active interstate freight carriers has declined in recent months. Rising insurance costs, prolonged margin compression and a tough rate environment are forcing small and mid-sized carriers out of the market. Historically, this kind of attrition would lead to rate inflation. But so far, pricing has barely budged.

So, what’s next? And how can shippers build a truckload freight strategy that’s ready for whatever comes?

A Market That’s Defying Expectations

Freight market cycles usually follow a familiar pattern: rising demand tightens capacity, spot rates spike, new carriers enter, and the cycle resets. Today’s cycle isn’t playing by those rules. Yet.

What makes this cycle different?

  • Carrier attrition is real: FMCSA data shows active carrier counts in steady decline
  • Spot rates are rising seasonally: Driven by produce and beverage volumes, but still below historical averages
  • Contract rates remain flat: Carriers are reluctant to raise rates and risk losing volume
  • Economic signals are mixed: Soft demand is muting pricing pressure, but conditions can shift rapidly

This combination creates a high-risk environment for shippers. When capacity does tighten, it could happen suddenly, with fewer options to pivot than in previous cycles.

Spot Market: Stability That Can Shift Quickly

Right now, the spot market may appear calm. But if demand rebounds while carriers continue to exit, that balance can break.

Risks for spot-dependent shippers include:

  • Limited recovery options if core carriers drop lanes
  • Unexpected rate spikes during seasonal or peak windows
  • Service disruptions in low-volume or rural lanes where capacity is already thin

Relying solely on today’s rates without a contingency plan puts your operations at risk.

Contract Freight Requires More Than Stability

Contract shippers may enjoy consistency—but that stability can mask hidden risks if conditions change and strategies don’t evolve.

Challenges in a contract-heavy approach:

  • Carrier consolidation reduces redundancy in your routing guide
  • Mid-contract renegotiations may emerge if margins compress further
  • Annual RFP cycles can lag real-world changes in lane performance or capacity dynamics

Even fixed-rate freight needs a layer of responsiveness powered by insight and execution.

Core Elements of a Resilient Truckload Procurement Strategy

To stay ahead of disruption, or avoid overpaying when the market turns, shippers need a strategy rooted in intelligence, flexibility and executional strength.

That’s where business intelligence and managed transportation intersect.

A future-ready truckload strategy includes:

  • Real-time visibility into carrier capacity and market shifts
    Use platforms like Beon Insight to track lane-level trends, dwell times and service KPIs
  • Scenario planning powered by market data
    Model events like seasonal surges or carrier insolvencies before they hit
  • Flexible procurement strategies
    Blend contract and spot freight based on real-time performance, not historical norms
  • Carrier network monitoring
    Regularly assess partner financial health and reduce your exposure to at-risk providers while consistently monitoring performance metrics
  • Responsive execution teams
    Ensure you have the resources in place to adjust quickly without compromising service

The Strategic Value of a Managed Transportation Partner

Just as outlined in the Q2 2025 Transportation Outlook, aligning with a partner who combines deep market insight, freight expertise and agile execution is essential in today’s volatile environment.

Partnering with a managed transportation provider isn’t just about moving freight. It’s about being ready for what’s next.

Transportation Insight delivers:

  • Lane-specific insights to drive smarter routing and procurement
  • Tools to scorecard carriers and monitor compliance
  • Real-time dashboards for enhanced visibility and accountability
  • A scalable model that adapts quickly when market conditions change

Final Takeaway

Truckload freight is in a transition period. Capacity is quietly contracting, but rates haven’t caught up yet. That makes now the right time to strengthen your strategy before pressure builds.

A future-proof approach isn’t reactive. It’s built on real-time visibility, flexible sourcing and a freight management framework designed for both stability and speed.

Want to strengthen your truckload freight strategy before the next market turn?
Talk to an expert at Transportation Insight